The first racing Classic of the season is coming on the weekend with the 2000 Guineas. Trainer Aidan O’Brien is looking to create some history by becoming the most successful trainer at the event by getting his eighth title. The best charge that he has out in the field for 2000 Guineas betting is Churchill who has stood firm at the head of the market and who is a 6/4 favourite at online betting site Bet365.
Churchill pretty much slots into the same profile as O’Brien previous winners of the race and that will probably be enough for some punters. He is the son of Galileo took so has great stock and he landed an impressive win in theGrade 1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at the back end of 2016. O’Brien last took a 2000 Guineas win back in 2015 when Gleneagle stormed the field and while he could have other contenders like Spirit of Valor, Peace Envoy Lancaster Bomber going, it is Churchill who is taking all the hype.
After all, Churchill took a win, albeit only a quarter length victory over Lancaster Bomber at Newmarket in October last year in the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes. Al Wukair trained by French master Andre Fabre is going to carry a good threat in the race and he is trading strongly as well and looking some big value at 4/1 is an option in the field. He is unbeaten at two and he was impressive in a trial in France when he crushed contender National Defence, a Group One winner.
Irish 2,000 Guineas: Odds-on favourite Churchill completes double. Last updated on 27 May 2017 27 May 2017. From the section Horse Racing. How To Profit From 2000 Guineas Odds. The 2000 Guineas betting is an interesting and potentially rewarding challenge for punters. Held very early in May or very late in April, the 2000 Guineas over a straight mile is the first classic of the season, and the odds are keen.
Barney Roy has taken a lot of backing since the start of the week when a dozen colts stood ground. With a Grade 3 wins t Newbury in the Greenham Stakes, seeing off Dream Castle by a couple of lengths. So that was a good final piece of work by Richard Hannon’s runner for the Godolphin Stable. That followed on from his maiden, a victory at Haydock in September. So there are two very strong challengers there to start with. The other main runner is Eminent who is coming in at 4/1 like Al Wukair is. The 3-year-old, trained by Martyn Meade put in a winning run at the Group 3 Craven Stakes in mid-April to set himself up for the 2000 Guineas. That’s two wins over 2000 Guineas distance from two outings for Eminent, who is the son of Frankel.
200 Guineas Betting Odds
Churchill 6/4, Barney Roy 7/2, Al Wukair 4/1, Eminent 4/1, Dream castle 16/1, Lancaster Bomber 33/1, Larchmont Lad 22/1, Rivet 33/1, 50/1 bar.
So you have three unbeaten colts at the head of the market for this one, with all of them having had easy, light workouts this season ahead of the 2000 Guineas. So all the trials that have been happening while Churchill has been working out, has really thrown some question marks over the outright favourite. A couple of weeks ago, Churchill was the stand out option but now there are some seriously strong contenders coming into play. For the value and tight field, the most impressive of the trial runners was Barney Roy who may be the one to get closest to the favourite.
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Let's start with Aiden O'Brien and his seven previous 2000 Guineas winners:- King Of Kings (1998) - By Sadlers Wells, won 4/5 as 2yo (G1 National Stakes), 3yo debut, 7-2 2nd favourite to odds-on Xaar (Fabre).
- Rock Of Gibraltar (2002) - By Danehill, won 5/7 as 2yo (2xG1's; Grand Criterium and Dewhurst Stakes) and beat Hawk Wing in G3, 3yo debut, 9-1 4th fav (6-4f stablemate Hawk Wing).
- Footstepsinthesand (2005) - By Giant's Causeway, won 2/2 as 2yo (G3 Killavullen Stakes), 3yo debut, 13-2 3rd fav.
- George Washington (2006) - By Danehill, won 4/5 as 2yo (2xG1's; Phoenix Stakes, National Stakes), 3yo debut, 6-4f.
- Henrythenavigator (2008) - By Kingmambo, won 2/4 as 2yo (G2 Coventry Stakes, beaten in G1/G2 on soft/heavy), 3yo debut, 11-1 4th fav.
- Camelot (2012) - By Montjeu, won 2/2 as 2yo (G1 Racing Post Trophy), 3yo debut, 15-8f.
- Gleneagles (2015) - By Galileo, won 5/6 as 2yo (G1 Dewhurst Stakes, disq from first in G1 Prix J-L Lagardere), 3yo debut, 4-1f.
All 7 of Aiden's winners have been making their 3yo debut, 6 of 7 were stable first strings (exception Rock Of Gibraltar had beaten stablemate fav Hawk Wing as 2yo), 5 of 7 were Group 1 winners (exceptions were Footstepsinthesand who hadn't contested one and Henrythenavigator, beaten length in soft ground Phoenix Stakes) and 5 of 7 had at least 4 runs as 2 year olds.
Churchill very much fits the profile of Aiden O'Brien's previous winners. By Galileo out of a speedy dam-side family (like Gleneagles), Churchill won 5 of his 6 starts in a busy 2yo campaign, culminating in Group 1 wins in the National and Dewhurst Stakes. He goes to Newmarket on his 3yo debut and is short priced favourite as stable first-string.
His pedigree provides plenty of support for his talent to progress from 2 to 3 (unlike Air Force Blue last year) while his running style provides further hope, always pulling out enough and suggesting he hasn't yet shown his full ability.
Churchill was beaten on debut (as 2-1f) in a 6f maiden on soft ground at the Curragh but stayed on well into a close 3rd. He broke his maiden in Listed company when staying on well to win Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot (first of 5 wins on bounce over 7f) before similarly strong finishes in Group 3 Tyros Stakes and Group 2 Futurity Stakes. Took form to new level when giving over 4 length beating to dual Group 2 scorer Mehmas in Group 1 National Stakes (runner-up had also finished 2L behind Ballydoyle's Caravaggio in Coventry Stakes). Completed season with another strong finish in Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket, a race with some depth; 2nd Lancaster Bomber since beaten 1L in G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and 2L in G2 UAE Derby; 3rd Blue Point had won G2 Gimcrack Stakes and close runner-up in G1 Middle Park Stakes; 4th Thunder Snow went on to win G1 Criterium International and G2 UAE Derby; 5th Rivet went on to win G1 Racing Post Trophy and was 2nd in G3 Craven on 3yo debut; 6th South Seas was 2nd to Thunder Snow in French G1.
Churchill looks to have few chinks in his armour, will be wholly suited by step up to a mile, is proven in dealing with the Newmarket dip and has had his 2yo form franked. He's already reached same RPR level (121) as recent Guineas winners Galileo Gold and Camelot and seems to have scope to improve to mid-120's as a minimum.
Backed at 8-1 after his National Stakes victory and currently 7-4f (looks more a 5-4 shot), Churchill looks to have three main rivals on paper (assuming stablemate Caravaggio goes to France).Al Wukair is Andre Fabre's contender (French master won with Zafonic and Pennekamp in '93 and '95) and is unbeaten in three runs to date (slow away at start all three times). At 2, he won well over 7f at Saint Cloud and a mile in a Listed contest at Deauville (runner-up won G3 since) in October. He moved from dark horse to contender with a smooth last to first success in Group 3 Prix Djebel at Maisons-Laffitte, seeing off National Defense (winner of Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at 2) with 117 RPR.
Al Wukair is by the sprinter Dream Ahead (progeny mainly also excelled at sprint distances to date) but dam won over a mile and second dam a French Oaks winner. He's already won over a mile on the track and the distance wouldn't appear to be an issue.
Backed at 10-1 after his Prix Djebel win and currently generally 4-1 joint second favourite and arguably still fair.
Barney Roy runs for Godolphin and Richard Hannon. Made 2yo debut towards end of September, running out quite impressive winner by 3+L over a mile at Haydock. Bought by boys in blue over winter and made it 2/2 in 7f Group 3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury, keeping on well for pressure to beat fellow Godolphin maiden winner Dream Castle. Visually taking in both races to date, the question is whether the form amounts to much as the Greenham was fairly weak (the O'Brien representative War Secretary a no-show in last) and he may find this tough so soon in career.
Barney Roy is by Excelebration (smart Group 1 miler) out of a Galileo mare so should have no trouble with the mile and may be better suited by a mile and quarter.
Current price of 7/2/4-1 looks a bit short.
Eminentruns for Martyn Meade, who has not tasted Classic success to date, and has two course and distance wins to his name. Made debut 2 days before Barney Roy and was a clear-cut winner (O'Brien representative Taj Mahal upsides him before being hampered). Stepped up to win Group 3 Craven Stakes in April, seeing off Rivet by 1.75L off level weights and staying on well (first three all raced near side). Form appears to be stronger than the Greenham and interesting formlines in behind (aside from Rivet who was beaten further by Churchill in Dewhurst); Larchmont Lad (beaten 4+L) a narrow winner from O'Brien's Whitecliffsofdover at 2, who was beaten similar distance by National Defense in French G1. Godolphin also have a line through the third, Benbatl.
Eminent is by superstar Frankel (who may have second Guineas runner with first 3yos's if Godolphin's Greenham runner-up Dream Castle takes chance). Dam was placed in Fillies Mile and second dam, Quarter Moon, Oaks-placed so no trouble with distance and, like Barney Roy, could actually be better at 10f.
Currently 5-1 fourth favourite and while his chances on form look stronger than Barney Roy, he may also suffer from lack of overall experience against a tough battler like Churchill.
Of the remainder, Dream Castle (Bin Suroor), was brushed aside by same owner's Barney Roy in the Greenham and ,whilst being by Frankel, has speedier dam-side which came through at Newbury (looked like going on to win, clear of rest but faded). He only won his maiden on 2nd April and this looks a tough ask all round.
Rivet (Haggas) beat Thunder Snow in the G2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster and won a weakish looking G1 Racing Post Trophy but was well held by Churchill in the Dewhurst and held by Eminent in the Craven back at Newmarket last month. Whilst left in at 5 day stage, French Guineas seems the preferred target.
Lancaster Bomber would be a frame contender for O'Brien if turning up here (trainer had muted trip to US but may still have time to come here first - currently 28th on Kentucky Derby points list so very unlikely to get in); brushed aside as Churchill's pacemaker in Futurity and National Stakes but held on well for 2nd in Dewhurst and showed different angle when staying on well to make frame at Breeders Cup and Meydan. Still dismissed in market but every chance of making frame with plenty of experience on the board. Backed at 33-1 e/w (1/4 odds) at 5 day stage.
Peace Envoyalso left in by O'Brien but ran in Listed Tetrarch Stakes on Monday (beaten but no run behind horses) - won G3 Anglesey Stakes at the Curragh and chased home Lady Aurelia in G1 Prix Morny before 8th of 10 in G1 Middle Park Stakes. Makes far less appeal than Lancaster Bomber as a big priced frame contender.
Larchmont Lad (Hannon), by Guineas winner Footstepsinthesand, won G3 Somerville Stakes over 7f at the course at 2, edging Ballydoyle's Whitecliffsofdover (subsequent Longchamp G1 3rd and European Free Handicap winner) but well held when 4L 5th to Eminent in Craven trial, albeit did race far side unlike those in front.
Top Score (Bin Suroor) won at Listed level in Meydan in February but beaten 17L in G2 UAE Derby, not at this level and may be left in with duties to support leading Godolphin hopes.
Law And Order (Tate) was held three times at Group 3 level as 2yo, won Listed contest at Lingfield before 3rd in Listed Feilden Stakes last time. Should be outclassed here.
Spirit Of Valour (O'Brien) is fourth of the Ballydoyle entries and this War Front colt won his maiden at Naas before finishing 2nd in G3 Killavullan Stakes (stablemate Taj Mahal just behind), well beaten in UAE Derby in March and this looks a tall order unless another one with pace duties.