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WITH every day that passes, the 2020 Arc looks more and more a two horse race.
But what a contest it is. John Gosden vs. Aidan O’Brien. Ryan Moore vs. Frankie Dettori. The young gun vs. the proven star. Love vs. Enable.
Trials weekend in France failed to throw up many new contenders for the end of season ding-dong at Longchamp.
So can anyone take it to the big two, Enable and Love?
You’d have to have a heart of stone to not want Enable to win. A third Arc falling to Enable would be fantastic for the sport.
But, she’s six now and looks to be a yard short of her brilliant best.
If the rain falls in France and makes a difference to the course, then her chance is enhanced, especially as Love prefers it quick.
But she has to give 6lbs to Love and might just fall short. For all of Gosden’s and Dettori’s brilliance, this is their biggest challenge yet.
The 1000 Guineas and Oaks winner added another Group 1 to her CV at York on her last start.
She beat very little in the Yorkshire Oaks, but it was nothing more than a glorified piece of work to her.
The form of her Classic double can also be questioned, but she put up a brilliant time on the clock and may well have won the Derby had she run there.
The better the surface, the better her chance as she loves it on the top of the ground.
John Gosden’s staying sensation has been written off in a lot of corners. And while they may have left a crack at the Arc one or two seasons too late, he still has a massive chance this time around.
Yes he was beat last time out, but Frankie Dettori was caught snoozing and he still ran a cracking race. He wasn’t beaten for speed as many lazily assumed straight away.
He could do with this being run at a serious gallop and some dig in the ground would only aid his chance further.
Stayers can go well in this race. You only have to look at the likes of Order Of St George in recent years. And many would argue that Stradivarius is a better horse and one with a few more gears than O’Brien’s stayer.
Sottsass could well be the home team’s main hope this year, but it would be a disappointing renewal if he came home first. Third in last year’s Arc, he hasn’t looked to be on top form so far this season and was last seen finishing fourth in the Irish Champion Stakes.
He should step up from that run but a place looks his best hope with the likes of Enable and Love looking in a different league.
The French three-year-old ran a really eye-catching race last time when flying home for second behind Mogul.
He’s lightly raced, unexposed and could be one of the biggest threats to the older horses. One to keep an eye on for sure.
This year’s Derby winner at Epsom faces a tough assignment once again. He was bitterly disappointing last time out and has a lot to prove after that and there are still questions about the Epsom run, and rightly so.
Jean-Claude Rouget’s Raabihah gets all the allowances being a three-year-old filly but looked short of top class when beaten by Dermot Weld’s Tarnawa last time out and it would take a big jump forwards for her to go close in this deeper race.
Mogul saw his Arc claims enhanced when winning on Arc Trials Day, but he has since drifted out in the betting.
It was a decent performance to win the Grand Prix de Paris but he will need to step up on that considerably in this field.
Last seen winning a classy French Group 1, if he takes up his entry on Sunday it will be a big step up in trip with his last win coming over a mile.
Untried at this trip so a big question mark.
A two-time Group 1 winner last season, Japan ran a big race when fourth in last year’s Arc de Triomphe.
However, he is yet to rediscover that form this season and has disappointed on all starts this year.
Another lightly-raced French three-year-old, he ran a good race when third behind Mogul last time out.
His previous form needs improving on and it would be a huge shock were he to fight out the finish.
Last year’s Nassau Stakes winner faces a huge task for Japan, and sadly it looks as if the Japanese will have to wait at least another year before the Arc heads their way.
The six-year-old mare has failed to impress in recent starts and looks out of her depth here.
Group 1 winner back in June he was beaten fair and square in the Prix Foy when last seen. Needs significant improvement.
Last year’s shock Irish Derby winner is yet to win a race since that victory.
His rivals look in a different league – no chance.
Dual Group 3 winners needs a ton of improvement to feature here. Trainer has much better chances elsewhere in the field.
Has no form to put him in with the slightest of chances – just making up the numbers.