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The Dallas Mavericks (13-15) host the Memphis Grizzlies (13-13) Monday for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off at the American Airlines Center. Below, we analyze the Grizzlies-Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
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Memphis was drubbed by the Phoenix Suns 128-97 Saturday due in large part to being without several key contributors. Despite being banged-up, the Grizzlies are 4-3 overall and ATS in these last seven games.
The Mavericks have been out of action since their 121-118 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on Valentine’s Day because of COVID-19 issues. After struggling out the gate, Dallas was trending up prior to the layoff, winning five of its previous seven entering Monday.
Dallas won last year’s regular-season series against Memphis 2-1, covering in both wins. All three games were blowouts with each finishing with a double-digit ATS margin.
Grizzlies at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Money line: Grizzlies +155 (bet $100 to win $155) Mavericks -190 (bet $190 to win $100)Against the spread/ATS: Grizzlies +4.5 (-110) Mavericks -4.5 (-110)Over/Under: 230.5 (O: -110 U: -110)Grizzlies at Mavericks: Key injuries
Grizzlies
SF Dillon Brooks (thigh) questionablePF Jaren Jackson (knee) outMavericks
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Grizzlies at Mavericks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Grizzlies 119, Mavericks 114
Money line (ML)
Memphis is top-5 in all four “miscellaneous” categories including second-chance points (1st) and fast break points (4th) per game and Dallas is 21st in opponent’s second-chance points and 26th in fast break points allowed per game.
Teams take the identity of their leaders, which is why the Grizzlies are more a hustle-team and the Mavericks are more finesse. Slight lean on GRIZZLIES (+155) because I like Memphis to cover the spread so I’m entertaining sprinkling on the underdog’s money line for some value.
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Against the spread (ATS)
The Mavs have been a terrible bet at home over the past couple of seasons. Dallas is an NBA’s worst 3-11 ATS at home this season with a minus-8.5-point spread differential whereas Memphis is 7-4 ATS with a plus-7.1-point margin in road games.
Also, the Grizzlies play much better than the Mavs at the beginning of the week: Dallas is 0-4 ATS on Mondays this season and Memphis is 4-1 winning by an average score of 114.2-107.2 on Mondays.
Finally, Memphis has a massive edge on the glass with the sixth-highest offensive rebounding rate while Dallas is 26th in defensive rebounding rate. BET GRIZZLIES +4.5 (-110) heavier or instead of their money line.
Over/Under (O/U)
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PASS with a lean on Over 231.5 (-110) because I like how both offenses matchup with each other. Dallas should have trouble against an aggressive Memphis attack and the Mavs have the eighth-highest 3-point attempt rate and the Grizzlies have the fourth-worst 3-point defense.
Furthermore, Memphis is 7-1 O/U as a road ‘dog with a plus-8.1-point total margin and Dallas is 8-4 O/U with a plus-10.8-point margin as a home favorite since the beginning of last season.
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