Despite a defiant tone struck by President Donald Trump during a shouty exit from the White House to assembled media (where he could be seen reading large handwritten notes stating “no quid pro quo”), the impeachment hearings against him are not going well.
Convicted in Senate impeachment trial Probability generated from the betting markets ( Betfair ) 9776 minutes ago. Betting markets are amongst the most accurate indicators of political outcomes. The Trump impeachment odds Vegas proved this to be a longshot at the beginning but since November 2018, the odds of this to become reality have been shortened. The Trump impeachment odds today show that he is +250 likely to be impeached and -375 to finish his mandate. The odds of a Trump impeachment are even stronger elsewhere. With Las Vegas oddsmaker Bovada, the odds are 13/10, an implied probability of 43.5 percent, that Trump will be impeached by the House.
How bad?
So bad that oddsmakers now view his impeachment as a matter of not “if” but “when.”
Donald Trump impeachment odds
| Will Donald Trump Be Impeached? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | -300 |
| No | +250 |
President Trump is now priced at -300 to be impeached at the European exchange Betfair. That moneyline wager means you’d need to bet $300 to win $100. The “No” odds are +250, meaning a $100 bet wins you $250.
Vegas Line On Trump Impeachment
Crowd-sourced platform Smarkets is pricing a similar outcome. “Will the House of Representatives pass articles of impeachment against Trump during his first term” is at nearly 83%.
President Trump 2020 US presidential election odds
Current Vegas Odds Impeachment
Even though Trump’s impeachment seems likely, he’s still the favorite to be re-elected. The 2020 presidential election odds remain unchanged as of today, with Trump +130 to win the White House again.
Impeachment Odds In Vegas
He’s followed by Elizabeth Warren (+450). As Pete Buttigieg surges in Iowa, his odds continue to improve (+800) as well.